January Heavy Truck Sales Drop 28% YoY to 70,000 Units

In the first month of 2025, how did China's heavy truck market perform? Have there been any changes in the market structure for new energy, gas, and traditional diesel trucks? Here’s an analysis from chinatrucks.com.

January Sales: Mixed News for the Market

In January 2025, the Chinese heavy truck market recorded sales of approximately 70,000 units (wholesale data, including exports and new energy vehicles). This represents a 17% decline compared to December 2024 and a 28% drop year-on-year from 97,000 units in January 2024.

Looking at the past eight years, this January’s sales were higher than in 2023 but lower than in other years. An early Spring Festival this year contributed to weaker sales, though there is potential for a rebound in February.
 

Two main factors led to the decline in both monthly and yearly sales:

Impact of the Spring Festival: The 2025 Spring Festival came earlier than usual, with an extended 8-day holiday affecting the supply chain, production, and sales channels, limiting market performance.

No "Carryover" Sales from 2024: At the end of 2023, a strong market recovery allowed truck manufacturers to shift some sales into January 2024 to ensure a strong start to the year. However, in 2024, despite the "old-for-new" replacement policy, the overall market was weaker. Manufacturers focused on meeting their 2024 year-end sales targets, leaving little room to roll over sales into early 2025. As a result, January 2025 sales lacked additional support, while January 2024 had an artificially high base of nearly 100,000 units, intensifying the year-on-year decline.

Even exports, which have been a key focus, saw a double-digit decline in January.

Slower Growth for Electric Trucks, Higher Share for Gas Trucks

Retail sales also declined in January. With the Spring Festival reducing freight activity and many truck owners returning home, truck purchases typically slow down ahead of the holiday. Additionally, the end of the "old-for-new" policy in December 2024 caused a surge in year-end registrations, reducing demand in January 2025.

Key trends in specific market segments:

Gas Trucks: Although retail sales saw a slight year-on-year decrease, their market share continued to grow. Falling LNG prices—below ¥5/kg in northern China—and a significant price gap of over ¥2/kg between gas and diesel made gas trucks more attractive. This drove their market share from 19% last year to over 22% in January 2025.

New Energy Trucks: In 2024, new energy heavy truck sales exceeded 80,000 units, growing 140% year-on-year, with record-high market penetration. However, growth slowed in January 2025, with retail sales up around 60% YoY, bringing the market share to 21%.

Together, gas and new energy trucks accounted for 43% of the market in January, over 10 percentage points higher than last year, further squeezing diesel truck sales.

Will Sales Rebound in February?

Given that February 2024 had low sales due to the Spring Festival, February 2025 is likely to see a recovery, with both wholesale and retail sales rebounding year-on-year.