Analysis of China heavy truck markets in Q3 and forecast in Q4 Ⅰ

www.chinatrucks.com: Market needs for heavy trucks will not decrease a lot this year after analyzing the heavy trucks environments, and the percentage will be within 5%. Sales of heavy trucks reached peaks in March, and sales of dumpers started to decreased since June. Sales of tractors also decreased. Compared to other vehicles, sales of dumpers kept stable or slight growth, and the sales are mainly driven by investments in Western China. In addition, export of heavy trucks may account to 15% of all sales. We can estimate that sales of heavy trucks may amount to 960,000 units both in China and abroad.

As the first year of the 12th five-year plan period, central government carried out proactive fiscal policy and tight monetary policy. And we can see from the macro-economy data that growth of GDP and fixed investment. The weak economy will definitely influence sales of heavy trucks. However, sales of tractors keep stable, which is an important factor for China heavy truck markets. And sales of heavy cargo vans were increasing.

Part One: Macro economy of China in 2011
　　
GDP in China were 20,445,900 million Yuan in the first half year, up 9.6%. And fixed investment in towns were 21,227,400 million Yuan, up 24.9%.
　　
Highway cargo transport is dominating in China and freight transports were 18,043,000,000 tons.km from Jan. to Sept., up 14.7%.

Port productions were stable and slightly decrease. Port's volumes of freight traffic were 5,970,000,000 tons, up 13.4%.

CPI increased by 5.7% from Jan. to Sept.

Highway safety protection regulation was carried out since July 1, and it rules strict restrictions on dimension of vehicles.
　　
Influenced by sliding sales of commercial vehicles, sales of China auto markets were decreasing in the first nine months. 327,018 commercial vehicles were produced in Sept., up 18.39% over August, and down 10.29% over last year. 326,584 vehicles were sold in Sept., up 14.23% over August, and down 5.92% over last year.
 
Part Two: 712,036 heavy trucks sold Jan. to Sept., down 9.78%, and sales of tractors decreased a lot

Sales of heavy trucks in the first quarter were hot, just like that of 2010, and average monthly sales were over 70,000 units. The sales started to decrease in the second quarter, and sales decreasing were getting better in Sept., especially heavy truck chassis and tractors.

According to sales data by CAAM, 281,767 cargo vans were produced in Sept., up 20.35% over August, and 280,530 vehicles were sold, up 14.95%. 60,669 heavy trucks were sold, up 5.83% over August, and sales volumes of heavy cargo vans, chassis and semi-trailer tractors were 15,971 units, 21,127 units, 23,571 units, up 3.71%, -23.01%, -11.2%. 712,036 heavy trucks were sold from Jan. to Sept., down 9.78% over last year, and sales volumes of heavy cargo vans, chassis and semi-trailer tractors were 223,244 units, 290,219 units, 198,573 units, up 16.89%, -9.9%, -28.09%.