Sales predicts of China truck industry in the second half year in 2011

www.chinatrucks.com: Macro economy trends in the second half year: CPI falls, GDP growth speed slows

Premier Wen Jiabao met Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel on July 16, and Mr. Wen said that China economy is heading where our macro regulation, economic growth speed is lower in the second quarter than in the first one, and this can be attributed to active regulations apart from big base number. 

Mr. Wen said that the basic policy is to keep stable on economy development, and proactive fiscal policy and the moderate loose monetary policy. Recently many experts predict that CPI in the second half year will hit record high in June, and the overall CPI is about 5%. And GDP growth in the second half year will be moderately decreasing, and the average level will be 9.3%.

Generally speaking, growth of commercial vehicle sales is correlated with national economy and industrialization, and the growth speed will be lower than the rate of industrialization in the later stage. China enters the metaphase in the 12th five-year plan, and growth rate of China truck industry will amount to 9%, lower than the increasing rate of 13.5% from 2001-2010. The predicts are based on three reasons: the first is that China economy growth speed will keep 9% in the next ten years, and the metaphase of industrialization features large investment scale, long industry line, many intermediate product, and long growth period; the second is that the transport and logistics needs are still rather high for China resources distributions and economy structure; and the third is that highway transport takes stable or even high shares in logistics in China.

Subsidized housing project will start collectively in the second half year, and the operating rate will reach 100% till end of November from 34% in May.

The freight rates started to recover in May, and the freight rate were 60.3, 1.45 higher than the figure in April. The freight rates for less-than-one carload heavy goods were 60.0, and this may stimulate sales growth of tractors in the third quarter.

It can be seen that the sales of trucks will stop decreasing and start to increase slightly in the second half year from the above analysis.

Truck sales predicts from July to Dec. in 2011